学术报告201621期

TITLE:  A Universal Growth Equation from a Network Model

Speaker:  Prof. Michael Tse, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong  Kong

Schedule:  4:00PM-5:00PM, June 16, Thursday, 2016.   

Location:  南一楼中311

邀请方：“多谱信息处理技术”国家级重点实验室

Abstract:

The  growth of the user population of a newly launched product or service is often  considered as being controlled by multiple factors like deployment of  appropriate business strategy, quality of the product, market readiness, and  luck! Recent research in network science has provided convenient access to the  construction of models that can describe collective human behaviour. Here, we  develop a model, based on construction of a networked community and two  fundamental behaviour of decision making, that can universally describe the  growth of the user population of any newly launched product or service. This  model leads to a universal growth equation that describes dynamically the size  of the user population in terms of the prospective market size and the extents  of peer influence and personal choice. We analyse 22 sets of real-world  historical growth data of a variety of products and services, and show that they  all follow the universal growth equation. The numerical procedure for finding  the model parameters allows the market size, and the relative effectiveness of  customer service and promotional efforts to be estimated from the available  historical growth data. This model can be extended to a variety of practical  growth applications. At the end of the talk we will present how the growth of a  professor's publication over time can be modelled.

Biography:  

Michael  Tse graduated with BEng(Hons) and PhD degrees from Melbourne University in 1987  and 1991. He is presently Chair Professor of Electronic Engineering at Hong Kong  Polytechnic University, where he served as Head of Electronic Engineering from  2005 to 2012 and on the University Council from 2013-2015. His research focuses  include power electronics, nonlinear systems, communications and recently  complex network applications. He is the author of 10 books and over 300  technical papers. He was recipient of a few Best Paper Prizes from IEEE and  other journals, as well as two Gold Medals in the International Inventions  Exhibition in Geneva. In 2005 and 2010, he was appointed as IEEE Distinguished  Lecturer. In 2006 he chaired the IEEE CAS Technical Committee on Nonlinear  Circuits and Systems. He serves and has served as Editor-in-Chief of IEEE  Transactions on Circuits and Systems II, IEEE Circuits and Systems Magazine and  IEEE Circuits and Systems Newsletter; as Editor of IJCTA and associate editor of  a few other IEEE journals. He serves on a number of IEEE committees including  the IEEE Fellow Committee and the IEEE Awards Committee. He has been appointed  to honorary professorship and distinguished fellowship by a few Australian,  Canadian and Chinese universities, including the Chang Jiang Scholar Chair in  China. He is currently serving on panels of Hong Kong Research Grants Council,  Innovation Technology Fund and National Science Foundation of China. Back in his  own university, he chairs the culture and art committee which organises over 100  events in visual art, theatre and music with public participation. He is an IEEE  Fellow and an IEAust Fellow.