学术报告第201747期

报告题目：Simulation Methods for the Assessment of Reliability of Structural and Mechanical Systems

报 告 人: Prof. Carlos Guedes Soares

报告时间：2017年9月20日14:30

报告地点：南一楼中311

摘要:.

The structural reliability methods are presently in a mature state of development and have been used in different fields in the implementation of reliability- and risk-based methodologies for design, maintenance and inspection planning of structural and mechanical systems. The first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) have been widely used and accepted for practical applications due to their efficiency, but they have limitations with respect to accuracy and general applicability to complex system reliability problems. The Monte Carlo based simulation methods (MCS) are nowadays a viable alternative to the FORM/SORM methods due to the presently available computational resources and efficient simulation strategies, making feasible their use in a practical engineering context. Presently, they are recognized as the most versatile and robust methods for reliability analysis, which can provide arbitrarily accurate failure probability predictions irrespective of the complexity of the limit states of the system. They overcome the limitations of accuracy and general applicability of the FORM/SORM methods and can provide an error estimate for the failure probability predictions. An overview of different MCS methods for structural reliability analysis will be given in this lecture, with focus on classical variance reduction techniques such as the importance sampling and directional simulation and more advanced methods based on asymptotic techniques and subset simulation. In particular the use of surrogate models for time-consuming implicit limit states and large structural systems will be discussed.

报告人简介：

Prof. Carlos Guedes Soares is a Distinguished Professor of the Engineering Faculty (Instituto Superior Tecnico) of the University of Lisbon and the Head of the Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), which is a research center of the University of Lisbon that is recognized and funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology. He received the M.S. and Ocean Engineer degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA in 1976, the Ph.D. degree from the Norwegian Institute of Technology, of the University of Trondheim, in 1984, and the Doctor of Science degree from the Technical University of Lisbon, Portugal, in 1991. He is a founding member and has been General Secretary and Chairman of the European Safety and Reliability Association (ESRA). He has been coordinating the Symposium on Structures, Safety and Reliability of the Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE) Conference since 1989 and has been Editor (now Editor-in-Chief) of the Reliability Engineering and System Safety Journal since 1992.